Ontario’s labour market forecast for July, 2012

July 12, 2012

TORONTO, ON, Jul 12, 2012/ Troy Media/ – Full-time employment in Ontario increased by 35,100 persons (0.6 per cent) in June compared with May, according to the latest estimate from Statistics Canada.

That lifted total employment in the province 0.3 per cent to 6.78 million persons. The unemployment rate was little changed at 7.7 per cent of the labour force. All numbers are seasonally-adjusted, unless otherwise noted.

The labour force of younger workers aged 15 to 24 increased by an estimated 17,300 persons (1.6 per cent) in June as students returned to the labour market. Fulltime employment among this age group increased, as did their unemployment rate.

By industry, employment in Ontario increased in business and building support services, educational services and accommodation/food services. Job gains in these industries were largely offset by declines in information services and agriculture.

In the first half of 2012, the average level of employment in Ontario is up by 47,000 persons (0.7 per cent) year-over-year. Meanwhile, the average unemployment rate was 7.9 per cent year-to-June, down from 8.1 per cent during the same period last year. Full- and part- time employment have grown at about the same rate.

Private sector payroll jobs are up by 59,000 (1.4 per cent), self-employment is up by 20,000 persons (2.0 per cent) and public sector payroll jobs are down by 32,000 persons (2.4 per cent).

We forecast modest to moderate economic growth over the medium term, leading to a gradual decline in Ontario’s unemployment rate. With forecast employment growth of 1.6 per cent in 2012 and labour force growth at 1.3 per cent, the unemployment rate slides to 7.5 per cent from 7.8 per cent in 2011. Ontario’s unemployment rate is forecast to fall below 7 per cent in 2013 and to decline each year to 6.1 per cent in 2015.

Labour force growth picks up but does not keep pace with 2.0 per cent average annual employment growth. Average hourly wage increases gradually gather momentum in response to improving market conditions, reaching 3.0 per cent in 2015.

Regions

Employment in metro Toronto jumped by an estimated 34,400 persons (1.2 per cent) in June. Regionally, job growth over the last three months has been led by metro Toronto, Ottawa, London and Northeast Ontario. Growth in these regions was largely offset by lower employment in Hamilton-Niagara, Kitchener- Waterloo, Muskoka-Kawarthas and Kingston-Pembroke.

Toronto: The latest seasonally-adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators are positive. Over the latest three months, average employment increased by an estimated 31,100 persons (1.0 per cent) from the previous three months, while the average unemployment rate increased from 8.5 per cent to 8.7 per cent of the labour force. Labour force growth exceeded employment growth.

Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula: The latest seasonally-adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators are negative. Over the latest three months, average employment declined by an estimated 14,000 persons (1.9 per cent) from the previous three months, while the average unemployment rate increased from 6.7 per cent to 7.9 per cent of the labour force.

Ottawa: The latest seasonally-adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators are positive. Over the latest three months, average employment increased by an estimated 9,200 persons (1.3 per cent) from the previous three months, while the average unemployment rate declined from 6.6 per cent to 6.0 per cent of the labour force.

Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie: The latest seasonally-adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators are negative. Over the latest three months, average employment decreased by an estimated 7,700 persons (1.1 per cent) from the prior three months, while the average unemployment rate increased from 6.2 per cent to 6.7 per cent of the labour force.

Windsor-Sarnia-The latest seasonally-adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators are positive. Over the latest three months, average employment increased by an estimated 2,200 persons (0.8 per cent) from the prior three months, while the average unemployment rate decreased from 9.9 per cent to 8.4 per cent of the labour force.

London: The latest seasonally-adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators are positive. Over the latest three months, average employment increased by an estimated 7,500 persons (2.3 per cent) from the previous three months, while the average unemployment rate declined from 8.0 per cent to 7.8 per cent of the labour force.

Northeast: The latest seasonally-adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators are positive. Over the latest three months, average employment increased by an estimated 6,700 persons (2.6 per cent) from the prior three months. Meanwhile, the average unemployment rate declined from 6.9 per cent to 5.9 per cent of the labour force.

Kingston-Pembroke: The latest seasonally-adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators are negative. Over the latest three months, average employment decreased by an estimated 6,800 persons (3.1 per cent) from the preceding three months. Meanwhile, the average unemployment rate increased from 6.1 per cent to 6.5 per cent of the labour force.

Muskoka-Kawarthas: The latest seasonally-adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators are negative. Over the latest three months, average employment decreased by an estimated 7,300 persons (4.0 per cent) from the previous three months, while the average unemployment increased from 7.4 per cent to 7.7 per cent of the labour force.

Stratford-Bruce Peninsula: The latest seasonally-adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators are negative. Over the latest three months, average employment decreased by an estimated 4,900 persons (3.0 per cent) from the preceding three months. Meanwhile, the average unemployment rate increased from 3.8 per cent to 4.0 per cent of the labour force.

Northwest: The latest seasonally-adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators are negative. Over the latest three months, average employment decreased by an estimated 2,000 persons (1.9 per cent) from the preceding three months. Meanwhile, the average unemployment rate increased from 6.1 per cent to 7.3 per cent of the labour force.

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